Event Analyzer

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⚡ TL;DR Verdict

Auto-synthesis · model vs market · ⤓ scroll for the why

⬇ Sections below show the work: Live Odds (current market), Odds Movement (steam in last 24h), Historical (5-season form + league position + H2H), Projection (full breakdown of model vs market across goals/spread/1H/1X2), Top Whales (who's buying what). The verdict above just picks the single biggest mismatch and lists risks; the panels below explain how it got there. Not investment advice.

💸 Inflow / Outflow

Whale money committing per outcome · non-settle 0.05–0.95

Hourly flow · last 48h

📊 Live Odds

⚡ Odds movement · last 24h

Snapshots taken every 30 min from Gamma API. "Steam" fires when Yes price moves ≥5pp in 1h (🔥 HOT), ≥10pp in 6h (🔶 WARMING), or ≥15pp in 24h (📈 TRENDING). Large fast moves often precede news — worth checking what's moving and why.

📜 Historical · last 5 seasons

Soccer only (top 7 European leagues). Data source: football-data.co.uk (free, no scorers/lineups). Teams newly promoted may have partial history.

📊 Projection · Spread / O-U / BTTS

Expected-value estimates from home/away form · cross-checked against live market

Expected goals = average of (this team's home scoring rate) and (opponent's away conceding rate). BTTS / O2.5 averaged from both teams' recent form at their respective venue. Small samples (10-game) are noisy — use as context, not signal.

🎯 Tips & Watchlist

Editorial picks · historical base rates + market structure + whale flow

Rule-based picks synthesizing live odds, historical base rates for major sports, and whale flow. "Positive" = potential edge (with estimated Kelly half-size where applicable). "Caution" = worth watching. "Skip" = no edge at current price. Not investment advice — framework for thinking, not instructions.

💡 Value Signals

Divergence flags fire only when: per-market 24h BUY flow ≥$10k, the bullish side has ≥$3k committed, and the whale-share vs implied gap ≥15pp. Binary markets are deduplicated (both sides produce symmetric divergences). Whale-share is a proxy for smart-money probability, not a true fair value — treat as a signal, not advice. Thin-flow markets (most of the dashboard) won't trigger anything, by design.