📊 Strategy Stats — Live Backtest + CLV
Real performance of every paper-trading strategy. Win rate + edge vs breakeven (#14 backtest) and
closing-line value (#9 CLV). No curve-fitting — these are live entries by our cron, settled by Polymarket,
computed from raw paper_trades + trades tables.
Window:
Loading both /api/signal-backtest and /api/clv-stats…
📖 What these metrics mean
Win Rate (WR)
% of resolved paper trades that paid out. Useful but limited — doesn't account for entry price.
Edge vs Breakeven
A strategy buying at $0.60 needs WR ≥ 60% just to break even.
edge_pp = WR − avg_entry_price. Positive edge above the CI half-width = real signal.ROI
Net P&L / total staked. Bottom-line return per dollar bet.
CLV (Closing Line Value)
Single most predictive metric of long-run edge. If we consistently buy at a price that the market later moves toward, we're extracting alpha.
CLV = closing_price − entry_price.Beat-Close Rate
% of trades where entry was better than the closing price. ≥60% is a strong sustained edge.
Wilson CI (95%)
Confidence interval for WR at 95%. Edge is "significant" only when |edge| > CI half-width AND n ≥ 5.
Data sources:
/api/signal-backtest + /api/clv-stats · Cron settles trades every minute · Cache: 10min.