Frequently Asked Questions

Polyloly is a free, real-time analytics dashboard for Polymarket prediction markets. It tracks large positions (≥$1,000), detects insider traders by win rate, and surfaces top trending markets. Think Bloomberg Terminal for prediction markets.

Yes, completely free. No signup required, no account needed, no email collection. We sustain the project through voluntary tips and Polymarket referral commissions.

No. Polyloly is an independent third-party analytics tool. We use Polymarket's public APIs to display market data, similar to how TradingView uses stock exchange data. We are not endorsed by, sponsored by, or otherwise affiliated with Polymarket Inc.

We calculate each trader's win rate across all resolved markets and the number of trades. Wallets with 80% or higher win rate on 5 or more resolved markets are flagged as 🔴 INSIDER. Wallets with 70-85% win rate on 5+ trades are flagged as 🟡 SUSPECT. This is an algorithmic estimate based on public on-chain data — not a verified accusation. High win rates can indicate skill, luck, or market specialization.

A whale is a trader placing very large positions. On Polyloly, we track all positions ≥$1,000 by default, with tier emoji: 🐟 Fish ($1k-$10k), 🦈 Shark ($10k-$50k), 🐋 Whale ($50k-$100k), 🐳 Mega-whale ($100k+).

Trade data is captured in real-time via WebSocket connection to Polymarket's RTDS feed. The dashboard auto-refreshes every 5 seconds. New trades typically appear within 1-3 seconds of execution.

No. Polyloly is informational only. To place trades, you need a Polymarket account. Click any market or trader on Polyloly to open the corresponding Polymarket page in a new tab.

All data is sourced from Polymarket's public APIs (Gamma API, Data API, RTDS WebSocket, User-PnL API). We do not collect, modify, or store any private data.

Polyloly displays public market data globally — anyone can view the dashboard from any country. However, the ability to actually trade on Polymarket varies by jurisdiction (currently restricted in the United States and certain other countries). Polyloly is informational only; you are responsible for compliance with your local laws regarding prediction markets.

Click any trade card on the dashboard. The analysis modal shows the trader's full profile, P&L history, win rate, and recent positions. Click their wallet address to open their Polymarket profile and follow further activity there.

Use the category bar at the top of the dashboard (Politics, Sports, Crypto, Esports, etc.). Each category also has its own URL: polyloly.com/politics, /crypto, /sport, and so on. You can bookmark or share these direct links.

Currently no — data is dashboard-only. If you need API access for export, programmatic monitoring, or building your own tool on top, contact us at hi@polyloly.com.

Click the candy mascot in the bottom-right corner. You'll be taken to a secure Stripe checkout where you can choose any amount from $1 to $1,000. Tips are voluntary and non-refundable. Supporters appear (with masked names) on the leaderboard accessible via the 💖 icon in the top-right.

We use anonymous analytics (Vercel Analytics for page views, Google Analytics for ads attribution if you came via a campaign). We do NOT collect emails, do NOT sell data, do NOT track you across other sites. See our Privacy Policy for full details.

Use our Polymarket referral link when signing up (it adds ?r=gwihum to polymarket.com URLs automatically when you click market links). Share the dashboard with traders who'd find it useful. Submit feature requests or bug reports to hi@polyloly.com.

It's a single-event deep-dive. Paste any Polymarket event URL or pick from the homepage search and you land on a stack of analytics cards: live in-play picks, exit signals, odds drift, player props, key players, whale flow, value signals, model probabilities, and a plain-English bottom line. Designed to answer one question: "on this market, what should I do?"

Edge = the gap between what our model thinks is the chance of an outcome vs. what the market is currently pricing it at. pp = "percentage points" — the absolute difference. Example: model says 58%, market says 44% → edge = +14pp in your favour (market under-prices). Same as a bookmaker's "price beat the close."

xG is the average number of goals a team should have scored based on the quality of chances they created (not the actual goals they finished). It's the gold-standard metric in football analytics. Used to spot teams whose actual goals are running ahead/behind their underlying chance creation — over- or under-performance regresses to xG over time.

If a team has scored +5.9 goals more than their xG over recent matches, they've been clinical or lucky. Statistically, that finishing edge regresses to the mean over the next ~5-10 games. So "xG regression risk · STRONG" means: don't price this team based on recent goals alone — their actual chance creation is weaker. Often a fade signal on Over markets.

Form = the team's recent results (last 5+ matches), including home/away splits, BTTS%, Over 2.5%, win rate. Form-vs-Implied = compares that form-based win rate against what Polymarket's price implies. Example: team's form says 54.7% win rate, market only prices the team at 29.5% → +25.2pp gap → market is under-pricing the team based on form alone.

Our model = a form-based statistical estimate of probabilities for each market (1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, spreads). Inputs: last 5 seasons of domestic-league results, home/away splits, head-to-head, finishing diff, xG, ELO ratings. It's NOT magic — just historical patterns weighted into a single number. Probabilistic, not deterministic.

"Market" = the implied probability from Polymarket's current price. Example: a YES priced at 0.44 implies the market thinks there's a 44% chance of happening. Polymarket prices update continuously as traders buy/sell.

Recent dollar volume from large traders (≥$1k positions) on each side of a market. Their money tells us where smart money is leaning, regardless of where the price currently sits. We track top-5 whale buyers per side over the last 24 hours — if their money concentrates heavily on one outcome but the price doesn't reflect it, that's a "whale gap" signal.

CLV = closing line value. We compare every resolved trade a wallet made vs. where the market eventually settled right before close. SHARP / BEATS MARKET = wallet enters at prices better than where the market settles → real skill (≥+2pp on average over 30+ resolved trades). FAIR PRICE = wallet's entries match market consensus, no consistent edge. CHASING / NO EDGE = wallet pays UP vs where market lands — reactive, often arrives late after news. CLV converges 5-10× faster than win-rate, so it's the sharpest "is this whale skilled or lucky?" signal.

Every sports trade is tagged by when it was placed relative to kickoff. 🟢 PRE-MATCH (≥70% pre-kickoff) = real conviction, the wallet had a thesis. 🟡 IN-PLAY REACTIVE = tactical mid-match buys, lower-quality signal. 🔴 POST-GAME ARB = closing/arbing won bets after the result is decided, near-zero info value. We weight pre-match flow heavily in our edge calls.

A snapshot diff: takes Polymarket prices from ~15-60 minutes ago and compares to right now. 🔥 STEAMING UP (≥+15pp) = market moving fast in this direction (often news, goal, or sharp money). ❄️ COLLAPSING (≤-15pp) = falling sharply. ⚪ flat = stable. Useful in-play to confirm or fade a position you just took.

For markets like "Bukayo Saka anytime scorer YES", we cross-check live goal events from api-sports.io. If a player has scored at minute 23 but the market still prices YES at 0.85 (instead of 0.99), that's a 14pp arb — buy YES, market will catch up in 3-7 minutes. Pure money window when the market is slow to react. Few times per match in UCL/EPL.

~30-60 min before kickoff api-sports publishes the starting XI. We compare it against the team's top-8 historical regulars (by minutes-played in last 10 matches). If a high-impact regular is benched or absent, we flag it with an impact score in pp. Example: Saka not starting = -10pp Arsenal-to-win. First to spot the lineup change has a 30-60min window before the market re-prices.

If you've logged a position via the LOG button on a pick (or our paper-trade bot has open positions on this event), this card recommends actions:
CASH OUT (≥92% YES) — minimal upside left, lock the win.
STOP LOSS (≤10% YES) — recover residual stake.
PARTIAL CASH — +50% with <30 min left, lock half.
HOLD — within normal variance band.

Some events (very obscure leagues, friendlies, brand-new fixtures) don't have enough historical data in our model. We then defer to Value Signals (whale flow, xG regression, weather) on the right and the markets table below for the read. The form model populates as more matches accumulate in our CSV sources.

"What to do" (left, full-width) = the synthesized headline picks from our model-vs-market comparison + risk callouts. Use this first.
"Value Signals" (right) = supplementary flags: whale flow gaps, xG regression risks, weather impact, cross-market arbitrage. Use these to corroborate or fade the headline.

Sometimes Polymarket's sub-markets price the same outcome inconsistently. If "X wins by ≥1" is 60% and "X wins by ≥2" is 50% but "X wins" 1X2 is 75%, the math doesn't add up across slugs — there's an arb. We compute the executable edge after spread costs and link to /arb-scanner for the full breakdown.

No. Polyloly is informational analytics — we describe what we see in public on-chain trade data and historical fixture results. We don't take stakes, broker bets, or guarantee outcomes. Prediction markets carry capital risk. See Terms for full disclaimer.